September 6th, 2024
Markets are off to a bumpy start in September as some investors are searching for signs of a coming recession. The August jobs report came out this morning and showed that 142,000 jobs were created last month, slightly less than…
August 30th, 2024
As of Friday morning, markets are finishing the month on a positive note. The Fed’s favorite inflation measure (PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures price index) for July 2024 was published today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It showed that…
August 23rd, 2024
It was a fairly quiet, but positive week for the markets. Goldman Sachs cut its probability forecast for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25%. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/19/goldman-sachs-cuts-odds-of-us-recession-to-20percent-on-fresh-data.html There was one interesting economic data point published this…
August 16th, 2024
Markets continue to recover from the two-day sell-off that began the month of August. Good economic news since the decline is indicating that investors likely overreacted to the weaker-than-expected July jobs number. The July inflation numbers released this week showed…
August 5th, 2024
The Fed met this week and, as expected, left interest rates unchanged, paving the way for the first cut to come in September. However, recent weakening economic data and disappointing earnings announcements have stoked fears that September may be too…
July 26th, 2024
Stock markets were volatile this week and (as of Friday morning) are looking to finish the week slightly lower apart from US small cap stocks, which have had another good week and are set to finish higher. Bonds were mainly…
July 19th, 2024
US equity markets have begun a significant rotation this month. We have written about the handful of tech stocks that have been responsible for more than half the return in some of the most popular stock indices during the first…
July 12th, 2024
Fed Chair Powell testified before Congress this week and didn’t say much we didn’t already know. Markets were already betting on a 71% chance of an interest rate cut in September, so investors were listening for Powell to either affirm…
June 28th, 2024
This week was mixed, just as June is finishing as a mixed month in the markets as well. It appears (as of Friday morning) the month will end with large US stock and bond indices higher, while non-US companies, small…
June 21st, 2024
Last week I warned how some of the most popular US stock indices are being heavily influenced by a handful of stocks, specifically a certain chipmaker that has now become the most valuable company in the world. As I write…
