This week was mixed, just as June is finishing as a mixed month in the markets as well. It appears (as of Friday morning) the month will end with large US stock and bond indices higher, while non-US companies, small US companies, and gold will finish lower.
As we get closer to the election in November, politics will begin to play a larger role in market behavior as investors seek to understand the direction of the country in 2025 and beyond. Polls show a very tight race for president and there’s still plenty of time for mistakes to be made. While markets can more easily anticipate what a second term for Biden might look like, forecasting the effects of a second term for Trump are less clear. In a recent poll of 400 money managers, 67% said Trump would be better for stocks than Biden.
However, many economists are concerned that Trump’s policies in a second term would reignite inflation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-economists-warn-trump-inflation.html
Uncertainty surrounding the leadership in Washington next year will undoubtably lead to speculation in the markets. The stock market is currently experiencing its longest stretch (377 days) without a one-day decline of 2% since the financial crisis. We expect market volatility to pick up this summer as markets wrestle with uncertainty in the political arena.
Have a great weekend.
Jack C. Harmon II, CFP®, CIMA
Principal, Harmon Financial Advisors
Registered Principal, Raymond James Financial Services
Harmon Financial Advisors, Inc. is an independent, fee-based financial planning firm and an independent Registered Investment Advisor. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. and Harmon Financial Advisors, Inc. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Harmon Financial Advisors, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.
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